Stay NJ: Noted economist says it’s wealthy younger residents — not seniors — who are leaving

Let’s be clear: Jeffrey Otteau was not trying to make a political statement or offer a
budget‑week recommendation about which residents the state should prioritize for
cost‑of‑living relief.

In fact, Otteau acknowledged he wasn’t fully versed in the details of the state’s
budget‑straining Stay NJ program.

He simply knows what the data shows. And, speaking last week at the NJ Bankers
Association Annual Economic Leadership Forum, Otteau said the numbers show that
young people — not seniors — are the ones being driven out of New Jersey by the cost
of living.

“When we look at the characteristics of the people who are leaving, they are no longer
retirements,” he told the audience. “Only one in five households leaving New Jersey
today has a head of household who has reached retirement age.

“That was the old story: you retire, your income falls and you move somewhere your
retirement dollars last longer.

“Four out of five people leaving New Jersey today are not in retirement but in their prime
working years — and half of everyone leaving is earning more than $150,000 a year.

That’s the highest category.”

Yes, the numbers are based in part on the often‑debated moving‑van surveys.

But that doesn’t invalidate the demographics of who is leaving. After all, people who rent
large moving vans tend to have higher incomes — and the higher‑income residents
who are leaving tend to be younger.

“The people who are leaving are leaving by choice and could afford to stay,” he said.

Otteau, the widely respected managing partner and chief economist of the highly
regarded Otteau Group, told BINJE after his talk that the math just doesn’t work for
many younger residents.

“If you’re a household making $150,000 and struggling to get by, you may leave
because your money goes farther elsewhere,” he said.

He emphasized that this isn’t an immediate crisis — but it is a looming concern.

“This is not a problem for this year or next year or a few years from now, but it is
something we will need to address,” he said.

That reckoning may come sooner than he expects.

It is budget week. New Gov. Mikie Sherrill has signaled she intends to make significant
cuts. And a program like Stay NJ — which began in 2025 and provides tax breaks to
seniors to help them remain in the state — could find itself on the chopping block.

In fact, if not for the program being a priority of Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin, it
may not have survived to see Year Two.

Of course, there’s this: the premise behind Stay NJ is undeniably well‑intentioned.

The program is designed to help seniors — people who have given decades of service
to the state — remain in New Jersey so they can watch their children and grandchildren
grow up.

But if Otteau is right, those seniors may have to leave the state to watch them grow.