The world of industrial real estate often relies on traditional indicators, such as freight volumes, leasing velocity, and construction starts, to gauge the direction of the market. But a less obvious metric may hold the key to predicting a coming turnaround: Consumer sentiment. Currently, consumer sentiment hovers at a rate similar to where we were in 2009, before the market swung back into high gear following the global financial crisis. Lately, the index has mimicked the lows of that cycle, according to the University of Michigan’s monthly Index.
But history tells us that sentiment doesn’t stay low forever. In fact, when combined with strong earnings and promising leasing activity, this might indicate a shift into a new cycle.
In 2009, consumer sentiment bottomed out at an annual average of 66.3, with quarterly readings dipping as low as 58.3 in the first quarter. As the financial system stabilized, sentiment recovered, reaching the 70s by 2010 and climbing into the 90s by 2015. That rebound preceded a surge in industrial activity, as consumers resumed spending and businesses responded with increased production, imports, and logistics demand. The pattern was clear: consumer sentiment acted as a leading indicator of economic recovery and industrial expansion.
If we are at a similar inflection point now, this indicator could once again serve as an early signal. The index fell in November to 50.3, down from October’s 53.6 and the lowest sentiment since mid-2022. The newest University of Michigan analysis shows that this decline is broad-based, with national sentiment trends fully aligned with independents rather than driven by any single political group. Bloomberg noted that the most recent drop was felt most sharply among lower- and middle-income consumers. Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, released in October, tells a similar story, with expectations sinking to 94.6, the lowest since April.
It may be that we are approaching a bottom. Historically, it’s that moment of stabilization — when confidence stops deteriorating — that precedes the turn in goods movement and, shortly after, in industrial leasing. The economy is starting to hint at just that. The Cass Freight Shipments Index rose 1.5% in September from August, the first monthly gain since spring. The Port of Los Angeles recorded its strongest quarter on record, up roughly 3% year-to-date, and U.S. rail intermodal traffic in early October showed year-over-year gains of 6–7%. That shift is now echoing in industrial fundamentals. According to JLL’s U.S. Industrial Market Dynamics, Q3 2025 report, leasing volume reached 10.7 million square feet in New Jersey — about 15% above the trailing three-year average — as vacancy fell 20 basis points to 6.6%, the largest quarterly decline in more than three years. The firm attributed the improvement to a resurgence in large Class A leases and renewed 3PL activity along the Turnpike corridor.
Vacancy has stabilized in the mid-6% range after nearly two years of steady climbs. In Chicago, new leasing totaled 7.9 million square feet, a 44% year-over-year jump, while the Northeast saw volume surge nearly 70% quarter-over-quarter despite elevated deliveries.
The corporate data supports that view as well. In its most recent earnings call, Prologis, an industry bellwether, described the industrial market as having reached “a clear turning point.” The company signed 19.6 million square feet of new leases in the third quarter, up 15% from the prior quarter, and reported total lease commencements of 65.6 million square feet. It also raised its development forecast for the year to more than $900 million, most of it pre-leased. To be sure, there are still headwinds. The ISM Manufacturing Index remains below 50, signaling contraction, and consumer expectations continue to lag. Vacancy rates are higher than during the pandemic-era boom, and rent growth has slowed. But that’s what the bottom of the cycle typically looks like. Leasing activity often recovers while the broader macro indicators still flash caution. Occupiers make decisions based on where they believe demand will be six or twelve months from now — not where it stands today.
This time around, the next leg of industrial demand is likely to be driven by a different mix of tenants. Third-party logistics firms, manufacturers investing in domestic capacity, and e-commerce companies expanding regional distribution networks have all contributed to a gradual rebalancing of the market. E-commerce alone now accounts for more than 16% of U.S. retail sales and continues to climb, while speculative construction has slowed sharply under higher borrowing costs. Those trends point toward a steadier, more sustainable growth cycle — one that might result in limited supply — once sentiment moves in the right direction.
For developers, investors, and occupiers, tracking consumer sentiment can inform timing and strategy. A sustained uptick in confidence could signal that consumers are ready to spend again, triggering manufacturing and logistics expansion.
The question now is how long “peak uncertainty” will last. In 2009, it lingered about a year before sentiment, freight, and leasing all strengthened in tandem. If history is any guide, the market may be much closer to the bottom than most think. In an industry where timing is everything, this one metric might once again be the early warning sign we’ve been waiting for.
David Greek is the managing partner of Greek Real Estate Partners and chair of Circulate NJ
