Bruce Van Saun, the chairman and CEO of Citizens Financial Group, acknowledged the economic headwinds facing New Jersey and the nation — including the state’s second highest‑in‑the‑country unemployment rate and lingering inflation — but made it clear he remains optimistic about what lies ahead.
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Speaking on a panel at the New Jersey Business & Industry Association’s Public Policy Forum last Friday, Van Saun said he looks at 2025 for his hypothesis: A year that began unevenly as a new administration settled in and struggled to implement policy, steadily improved as the year progressed.
“We saw some decent levels of GDP growth, and our outlook for 2026 is more of the same,” he told an overflow crowd on business leaders while participating on a CEO panel.
Van Saun outlined several factors he believes will fuel continued momentum.
- The Big Beautiful Bill is stimulative;
- Deregulation efforts are proving constructive;
- A renewed push for domestic energy production is creating more predictability for businesses.
Van Saun also cited the Federal Reserve’s ongoing rate‑cutting cycle and the massive levels of investment flowing into artificial intelligence as encouraging indicators.
“The level of AI investment that’s taking place, the spend that goes along with that, (is) all very positive,” he said.
Based on those dynamics, Van Saun offered a straightforward macroeconomic forecast for the coming year.
He expects GDP growth of “at least two and a half percent” in 2026. He sees unemployment drifting down into a range between 4% and 4.5%. And he anticipates inflation easing into the 2.5% to 3% band.
“That’s a pretty good backdrop in which to operate,” he said.
Still, Van Saun noted there are two clear risks that deserve ongoing attention: consumer confidence and global instability.
He said households, particularly those in the lower half of the income distribution, are still feeling real pressure from years of price increases that outpaced wage gains. That gap, he said, eroded purchasing power in ways that won’t immediately reverse.
Van Saun said he expects improvement, but not overnight.
“Good growth will allow for those wage gains to catch up as you bring inflation down,” he said.
Van Saun noted it might take a couple of years for consumers to feel fully restored, but he thinks that consumer sentiment will turn around.
Geopolitical volatility remains the other wild card — one that could always reshape the economic picture quickly. But barring an unforeseen shock, Van Saun said the fundamentals point toward a stronger‑than‑expected stretch for businesses and investors.
“I’d say the basic view is it’s going to be a good year,” he said. “Folks are going to invest. And we could be actually at the onset of a very positive business cycle. I think this could last more than 2026 — it could last into 27, 28.”
