After the most hotly contested primaries in a generation proved to be not so contested after all, we finally have the head-to-head matchup to be the next governor of New Jersey: Democratic Mikie Sherrill vs. Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
Or do we?
After both candidates scored resounding victories Tuesday night, they began attacking each other — and attacking the leaders from their parties.
Ciattarelli said Sherrill would essentially be a third term for Murphy — a fact she tries to hide, Ciattarelli said, by attacking Trump.
“If this campaign were a drinking game and you took a shot every time Mikie Sherrill says ‘Trump,’ you’d be drunk off your ass every day between now and Nov. 4,” Ciattarelli said during a rousing victory speech at Bell Works in Holmdel.
Sherrill, in her victory speech from Morristown, called Ciattarelli a Trump ‘lackey’ and made it clear she will try to tie her candidate to a president who fared well in the state in 2024.
Sherrill said she is a new idea — noting Ciattarelli is the Republican’s candidate for the second straight election and that he has been seeking the office since 2017.
“I’m ready to shake up the status quo, and Jack is the status quo,” she said. ”He’s not change; he’s a re-run. He’s a ghost of elections past.”
Will this rhetoric pay off in the general election on Nov. 4? We’ll learn that then. Last night, it became obvious that it worked in the primary — as both won by surprisingly large margins.
With a small percentage still to be counted, Sherrill appears to have won by 14% despite being in a six-person field. She won approximately 34% of the vote (in a race some thought just over 20% could win) and her total matched the totals of second-place finisher, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka (20%) and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop (16%).
Ciattarelli defeated radio talk show host Bill Spadea by a more than 3-1 margin (68%-22%) in a race that was once believed to be much closer – a race that was over when Trump put his support behind Ciattarelli.
How big was Ciattarelli’s margin? Consider this, Gov. Murphy — after seemingly clearing the field of his top opponents in 2017 (Fulop and then State Sen. President Steve Sweeney), got less than 50% of the vote (48%) though he won by 26 percentage points.
While the candidates quickly pivoted to their November opponents, it will be interesting to see how quickly they pivot away from Trump and Murphy.
Many feel New Jersey is not filled with extremists on either side and that the moderates and independents in the middle will determine the general election.
A bigger question may be how quickly the candidates can coalesce support from their party opponents. Many Democrats seem to be falling in line behind Sherrill.
The same is not happening on the Republican side.
Spadea, who pitched himself as ultra MAGA from the state, was not quick to endorse the man Trump supported.
“It would be a hard, hard sell for any actual conservative to support Jack Ciattarelli,” Spadea said.
Some other news and notes from Thursday night:
Baraka fares well
The mayor of Newark finished second, but was that a result of him bringing out his base of progressive and Black voters or catching on more with the general audience?
It remains to be seen if reached his ceiling. His path is clearer.
Baraka said last night that he has no desire to be considered for Lt. Governor and that he’ll remain the mayor of Newark. Should Sherrill fail to win, Baraka seemingly put himself in a strong position for 2029.
Next move for Fulop
The outspoken Jersey City mayor — who got into the race early and articulated his positions more clearly than others — finished, for him, a disappointing third. He is not running for re-election — and there appears to be no clear path to be a senator or congressman. And his no-holds-barred campaign did not sit well with party leaders.
His next move is anybody’s guess.
Next move for Gottheimer
He is a master fundraiser and practical politician. The first attribute always plays well. The second isn’t as clear. His future is more certain. He will return to Washington — and hope the Democrats win the House in 2026, potentially offering him a chance at a leadership position.
Should Sherrill lose, Gottheimer seemingly would be interested in running again in 2029. But that’s suddenly a long way off.
End of line for Sweeney, Bramnick
Democratic Steve Sweeney, the former powerful State Senate president, finished in single digits. Efforts to secure a solid South Jersey — which may not have been enough to push him over the top — fell short.
State Sen. Jon Bramnick pitched himself as a moderate who could win. Republicans never seemed to warm to his campaign.
How things lined up
It’s unclear how impactful the loss of “the line” was.
Not having the controversial ballot design that seemingly favored the party-favored candidate did not have much impact in the gubernatorial race (though some said it gave a preview to larger fields). It appears that it will be a factor in some General Assembly races, where a higher number of party-supported candidates fell than ever before.
