With less than three months remaining until the New Jersey gubernatorial election, a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll shows Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill with a nine-point lead over Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli among likely voters. According to the poll, 44% of likely voters would vote for Sherrill, while 35% would vote for Ciattarelli.
When factoring in “leaners”—voters who initially declined to choose but later picked a candidate—Sherrill’s lead expands slightly to 47% compared to Ciattarelli’s 37%, leaving 12% of voters still undecided.
“The race is competitive and will continue to be in flux, in large part because there are still a notable number of undecideds,” Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling said. Koning also noted that with a significant number of undecided voters and shifting turnout dynamics, the outcome remains uncertain.
Voter demographics and key blocs
The poll highlights clear divides among different demographic groups:
- Partisan Support: Both candidates have strong support from their respective parties, with 85% of Democrats backing Sherrill and 81% of Republicans supporting Ciattarelli.
- Independents: The independent voting bloc is nearly evenly split, with 33% for Sherrill and 32% for Ciattarelli, and 29% remaining unsure. Koning emphasized that this group will be a key factor in the November outcome.
- Race and Ethnicity: Sherrill holds a double-digit lead among several minority groups: 69% among Black voters (compared to 4% for Ciattarelli), 56% among Hispanic voters (22% for Ciattarelli), and 47% among Asian voters (18% for Ciattarelli). White voters, however, are divided, with 38% for Sherrill and 44% for Ciattarelli.
- Age and Income: Sherrill has a wide lead among younger voters ages 18-34 (48% to 21%), and her support is strongest among households with an annual income of $150,000 or more (58% to 28%). Ciattarelli performs better with voters ages 50-64 (41% to 36%) and those with less than a college degree (45% to 34%).
