In a survey that most assuredly will become talking point in the gubernatorial race, nearly half of the residents of New Jersey say the state is on the wrong track.
The latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, released Friday morning, found that 48% of residents say New Jersey is on the wrong track, compared with 39% who say it is headed in the right direction. Fourteen percent said they were unsure.
Not surprisingly, the results fell with party preferences.
Nearly two-thirds of Democrats (63%) say the state is headed in the right direction, while three-quarters of Republicans (77%) say it’s headed off on the wrong track, according to the poll conducted in mid-June.
Independents, which figure to play a huge role in the race between Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli and Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill, were the most intriguing — and tended to mirror the population as a whole, as 48% said the state is on the wrong track (as opposed to 32% who said it was headed in the right direction.
Party lines didn’t seem to matter when naming the state’s biggest issues
When asked to name the most important problem in New Jersey, 36% of residents cite something to do with taxes and 22% say something to do with affordability and cost of living. No other issue comes close. Housing and the economy are tied for a distant third (each at 8%). Issues such as crime and safety, immigration, education and infrastructure were all in the 2%-to-3% range; 9% said something else unrelated to any of these categories.
“The latest numbers on where New Jerseyans think the state is headed continue a trend we’ve seen in the past few years of a divided outlook that has often been more negative than positive,” Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers-New Brunswick said. “The current gap between right track and wrong direction is now at its widest since March 2022. And much like everything else in today’s political climate, views on the state’s future are heavily influenced by partisanship.”
Money means everything, too.
“Economic concerns are front and center for New Jerseyans, making pocketbook issues a critical focus for both gubernatorial candidates in this year’s election,” Koning said. “But exactly which pocketbook issues to focus on depends on who you ask, with traditionally more Democratic-leaning voting blocs focused on affordability and cost of living, while traditionally more Republican-leaning voting blocs are focused on high taxes.”
While taxes are the most important problem across the board, Republicans are especially likely to say this (44% compared to 34% of independents and 31% of Democrats), while Democrats and independents are more likely than Republicans to mention something about affordability and cost of living. Crime is more likely to be reported as a problem by Republicans (9%) than Democrats or independents (each at 1%).
White respondents are more likely than nonwhite respondents to cite something about taxes as the most important issue facing the state (44% to 25%), as are older respondents compared with younger respondents. Nonwhite respondents are more likely than white respondents to say the economy is the most important problem in New Jersey today (13% to 4%).
As for the election, Koning offered this.
“To chart a path to victory, both Jack Ciattarelli and Mikie Sherrill will need to confront New Jersey’s high taxes and lack of affordability head-on,” she said. “The problem is that these are long-standing issues with no simple solutions, so the real test for these nominees will be convincing voters this fall that they can actually make a difference.”
Results are from a statewide poll of 621 adults contacted through the probability-based Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel from June 13-16. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points.
