When it comes to how the candidates for governor would handle economic and fiscal issues in the state, respondents in the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, released this morning, essentially said it was a tossup between Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Mikie Sherrill.
Consider the results on these six issues, many of which fall into the margin of error:
- Economy and jobs: Ciattarelli, 46-40;
- State budget and government spending: Ciattarelli 45-39;
- Transportation and infrastructure: Sherrill, 41-40
- Cost of living and affordability: Sherrill, 42-41;
- Health care: Sherrill, 50-35
- Crime and safety: Ciattarelli, 49-35
Sherrill, as she has throughout the campaign, still has the overall lead (50%-45%).
And while both candidates seemingly have locked up the votes from those in their own party, Sherrill also has the lead among independents (49-40), a voting block that often plays a key role.
Ashley Koning, the director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers-New Brunswick, said the race has narrowed in its final weeks – which was expected.
She also feels the tried-and-true indicator of elections’ past (turnout) will come into play.
“Polls show a close race as voters tune in and opinions solidify, but the outcome will ultimately hinge on each campaign’s turnout operation,” she said. “This is especially true in off-year elections, which are usually accompanied by comparatively smaller and less predictable electorates.”
There are notable differences in other key demographics:
Women: They are 18 points more likely than men to say they would vote for Sherrill;
Seniors: (65 and up): Sherrill leads, 61-36;
Non-Hispanic white voters: Ciattarelli leads, 53-46;
Non-white voters: Sherrill leads, 59-29;
College graduates: Sherrill leads, 61-35;
Some college or less: Ciattarelli leads, 55-38;
As for President Donald Trump, 52% of voters said he is a “major factor” in their vote – while 14% say he is a “minor” factor and 34% saying he isn’t a factor at all.
What’s unclear: How Trump helps and hurts both candidates.
The results are from a statewide poll of 795 likely voters contacted via live calling and texting from Oct. 3 to Oct. 17. This likely voter sample has a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points.
