Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill has a huge early lead (51%-31%) over Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli in the first Eagleton Poll since they won their party’s primaries.
The poll, of 621 adults (including 579 registered voters), was taken June 13-16 — or just days after the primary. Of those surveyed, only 13% said they were undecided and 5% said they wouldn’t vote for either or were intending to vote for someone else.
Ashley Koning, the director of the Eagleton Center for Public Policy Interest Polling at Rutgers-New Brunswick, warned that this initial poll is just that — a first look at an election that still is four months away.
“Early polling on the governor’s race should serve as a baseline or a barometer of how voters are feeling in the moment — not as some crystal ball predicting the future four months from now,” she said. “A lot can happen between now and November, and we know this gap will very likely narrow in the next several months.
“We only need to look back to 2021 to see how much a race can change throughout a cycle. Add to this an intense national political landscape that will, once again, surely play a role in the governor’s race here at home. Come November, what will matter is who actually turns out to vote.”
To be sure, polling has become more uncertain in recent elections. That being said, some key metrics already appear to be emerging.
Sherrill’s base has more quickly coalesced around her than Ciattarelli’s has to him: 89% of Democrats (95% with leaners) say they will vote for their party’s nominee, versus 74% of Republicans (79% with leaners) who say the same about theirs.
And President Donald Trump figures to play a role in the race as 52% of voters say he is a “major factor” in their vote for governor and another 18% say he is a “minor” one, while 30% say he isn’t a factor at all.
As expected, those likely to be in Sherrill’s camp are much more prone to say Trump is a “major factor” for them (69% of Democrats) than those who are likely to be in Ciattarelli’s camp (35% of Republicans).
More importantly, nearly half of independents (48%) say Trump is a “major factor” for them, 20% a “minor” one and 32% not a factor at all.
“Trump’s influence appears to be more of a benefit to Sherrill right now, given key groups more likely to support her are also more likely to claim the president is a factor in their vote choice, while those more supportive of Ciattarelli do not,” Koning said. “While Trump’s endorsement may have helped in the primaries, these numbers are an early sign that the endorsement may play differently when it comes to the general.”
Sherrill performs better than Ciattarelli on a variety of issues, though her edge vanishes on the top issue facing the state. Here’s how that breaks down:
Better on taxes
Sherrill: 39%
Ciattarelli: 34%
Neither/unsure: 28%
Better on cost of living and affordability
Sherrill: 45%
Ciattarelli: 29%
Neither/unsure: 26%
Better handle state’s economy
Sherrill: 42%
Ciattarelli: 32%
Neither/unsure: 25%
Better handle state budget and government spending
Sherrill: 42%
Ciattarelli: 32%
Neither/unsure: 25%
Better on health care
Sherrill: 51%
Ciattarelli: 24%
Better on education and schools
Sherrill: 50%
Ciattarelli: 24%
Better on transportation and infrastructure
Sherrill: 45%
Ciattarelli: 29%
Better on crime and safety
Sherrill: 39%
Ciattarelli: 37%
As for their ideology, Sherill was viewed as more moderate.
Sherrill ideology
- Very liberal: 16%
- Somewhat liberal: 35%
- Moderate: 25%
- Somewhat conservative: 3%
- Very conservative: 1%
- Unsure: 19%
Ciattarelli ideology
- Very conservative: 34%
- Somewhat conservative: 34%
- Moderate: 10%
- Somewhat liberal: 4%
- Very liberal: 1%
- Unsure: 17%
Results are from a statewide poll of 621 adults contacted through the probability-based Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel from June 13 to June 16. The full sample has a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points. The registered voter subsample contains 579 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percentage points.
